OPINION OF GASPAR ALAPONT
VICE-PRESIDENT SAB-ALMENDRAVE
Predicting the behavior of the nut markets, particularly the almond market, is complicated by their great volatility and the many external factors that influence them. This volatility can be influenced by unpredictable climatic variations, fluctuations in world demand, changes in trade policies, global economic instability, etc. For these reasons, any projections should be taken with caution and consider a wide range of possible scenarios.
The truth is that the area dedicated to almond cultivation has continued to grow in recent years on the Iberian Peninsula, reaching 765,000 hectares in Spain and 46,000 hectares in Portugal. In Spain, 77% of all farms are still rainfed, although the real boost comes from irrigated farms. It's also worth noting that 32% of the almond area in Spain is dedicated to organic cultivation: 245,000 hectares dedicated to production with a distinctive quality and a niche consumer base that is on the rise worldwide.
All this in turn means that an increase in production is on the horizon. After several years in which different climatic factors reduced production, both on the Iberian Peninsula and in California, everything seems to indicate that in 2024 the harvest will reach (and probably exceed) 130,000 tons of kernels in Spain.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the Almond Board of California (ABC) estimates that the harvest in the United States will reach the important figure of 1,339,300 tons of kernels, thus recovering from the reduction in the harvest caused by the severe drought in California last year, which brought the figure down to 1,121,380 tons. Of particular note is the foreseeable increase in organic almond production, which in Spain stood at 16,000 tons last year, 2023, and is expected to reach 20,000 tons in 2024, with a presumed increase to 27,000 tons in 2027, taking into account the current area and the entry into production of new farms.
On the eve of this increase in the production horizon, attention must be paid to consumer demand.
By 2020, almond consumption was increasing globally: the publication of studies such as Predimed, which highlights the nutritional qualities of almond consumption, ABC's own promotional campaigns, the proliferation of the use of almonds in cosmetic products... have meant that global consumption reached 1,379,000 tons in 2019, compared to 1,075,000 tons in 2015, according to INC data. After the pandemic, it is estimated that this consumption has fallen by between 4 and 7%, which invites us to take action to try to increase this consumption.
Firstly, by opening up new markets. In this area, there are two countries that stand out from the rest. The first is China. In 2024, Spain shipped its first containers of almonds, following the agreement reached in March 2023 between the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food and the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China to export almonds to the Asian giant. On the other hand, India is another country where demand for almonds is expected to grow and, in this sense, would represent an interesting opportunity for the export of Spanish almonds in the coming years.
With the aim of promoting almond consumption on the European continent, which has already been consolidated, it is worth highlighting the Iberian almond promotion campaign launched by the Spanish Almond and Hazelnut Exporters Association and Portugal's National Competence Center for Dried Fruit. The aim of the campaign is to promote the distinctive characteristics of the European almond in countries such as France and Germany. Characteristics such as its ecological and social sustainability, its excellent water management, the significant investment in R&D made by producers to guarantee its quality and food safety and its leadership in terms of organic production.
In short, the almond market is in a phase of dynamic growth and adaptation. The expansion of cultivation areas in both Spain and Portugal, together with optimistic production projections for the coming years, suggest a positive outlook. However, this growth must be accompanied by an increase in its price that makes all the activity associated with its cultivation profitable, as well as effective strategies to increase demand, especially in emerging markets such as China and India.
Only a balanced approach combining increased production, profitable prices for the entire chain and increased consumption can guarantee the sector's future stability and prosperity.
Source: Voz do Campo, 1 August 2024
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